UNDP Uzbekistan

Government is currently facing the implications of recent global financial and economic crisis, as well as the water shortage issues on the country’s economy and the wellbeing of the population. In order to respond adequately to the development challenges and apply the right policy options the Government needs solid assessment of the situation and balanced forecasts of future developments in the short and medium terms.

Taking into account the necessity of conducting thorough analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic tendencies and development scenarios at national, as well as sectoral and regional levels, the Government has recently established the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IMFR) under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan.   Main objectives of the Institute include:

• Conducting thorough analysis of macroeconomic indicators and their linkages with the parameters of current fiscal, monetary, foreign trade and currency policies, analysis of global economic tendencies and external factors, which have impact on national economy, develop flexible models and forecasts for balanced and sustainable development of the country;
• Identifying sector and regional disparities, their causes and based on this develop proposals on structural reforms as a basis of modernization and diversification of the economy;
• Developing multiple-scenarios of medium and long-term economic forecasts directed at ensuring long-term macroeconomic balance.

However, in the meantime, the newly formed Institute lacks sufficient human and methodological capacity to effectively undertake its functions and meet responsibilities. 

It is believed that the timely and well conducted impact assessment may contribute to the significant mitigation of possible implications of external shocks on the country’s economy and the welfare of the population.  Moreover, the selection of best policy choice should be based on empirical evidence and effective forecasts of future development trends.  Thus, UNDP Uzbekistan and the IFMR have launched joint project entitled “capacity building for economic forecasting and analysis at national and local levels” to support the IFMR in the development of country-specific methodologies for analysis of economic growth factors and poverty indicators, balancing medium term macroeconomic forecasting parameters and elaboration of regional development strategies.

This project is intended to support the development of country-specific methodologies for analysis of economic growth factors and poverty indicators, balancing medium term macroeconomic forecasting parameters and elaboration of regional development strategies. The principal objective of this project is to enhance Government’s capacity in medium term policy analysis and formulation at national and regional levels.

1. Methodological instruments to support the medium term macroeconomic forecasting and regional development planning.
2. Extensive policy research on the linkages among different economic development parameters and on the factors affecting regional development such as shortage of water resources, unemployment and rural urban migration.
3. Wide public discussions on main development challenges and promotion of the Institute as a lead think-tank in the sphere of economic analysis and forecasting.
Andijan
Throughout the duration of a whole reforming period, the policy of Uzbekistan government was directed to support the balance of social and economic development of the country regions. In this regard appropriate resolutions of the President and government were made as well as regional and sectorial programs were implemented everywhere that allowed to smooth the most critical differentiations in the development of several regions. However, differentiation in their development still exists due to insufficient exploitation of available regions’ potential.

In connection with the above mentioned, elaboration and implementation of a medium-term (about 3 years) Strategy of social and economic development of the region is a preferred direction of the local authority. Development of the social and economic development strategy of Samarkand region will be a significant support for the local authority – Khokimiyat in issues related to planning, implementing and monitoring of processes of social and economic development of the region in a medium-term perspective.
Surkhandarya
The government has pursued identification of economic and social disparities across regions, their causes and consequences. One of the mandates of the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research is to develop policies and structural reform proposals for regions that promote more efficient resource allocation, modernization and diversification of regional economies, social and economic well-being of population, mitigation of environmental effects. This year the project plans to prepare socioeconomic development strategy for Surkhandarya. The strategy is to analyze economic capacity of the region based on its labor resources, accessible minerals, industrial and agricultural capacity, domestic and foreign trade potential, infrastructure, etc. It is also to study the social conditions of the region to elaborate on future welfare effects. This will reveal weaknesses and strengths of the region and indicate important targets. Based on the revealed capacity and priorities of the region the strategy is to specify medium and long term goals in economic performance and social policies. It is also to provide projections of social and economic indicators of Surkhandarya under alternative scenarios.